H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Orders In Jeopardy?
The Current H1N1 Influenza Virus pandemic is becoming more virulent each day as it continues to spread around the world at frighteningly rapid speed. Not only are health experts surprised at the rapidness of the viruses transmission but concern is growing in some countries that the H1N1 vaccine currently in production in many nations around the globe may not make it to the countries that have ordered it.
Countries such as the United States, Great Britain among others, who signed contracts with the vaccine producing manufacturers, may be broadsided by those contracts not being honored. Some experts caution that as we enter further into the existing global pandemic, some nation’s governments could find they are facing massive pressure from their populations to safeguard their populace first before shipping the valuable and perhaps limited supplies of H1N1 vaccine abroad.
Countries like England that require all of their vaccine supply to be imported from overseas are vulnerable to broken contracts as is the United States and others who just don’t produce enough of their own vaccine at home. The U.S. now only manufactures 20% of the influenza vaccine that it utilizes and the rest is contracted out of country. One doesn’t have to stretch their imagination to far to understand that in the event of a severe outbreak within a vaccine producing country, governments may be forced politically to hoard the vaccine destined for other countries, regardless of any legal paperwork.
Some experts believe the pressure to forego shipments of vaccine in order to aid in saving their own people would be intense. If they did ship out the vaccine supply as ordered and left their own populace with little or none of their own the result would be chaos. Currently close to seventy percent of the worlds, influenza vaccine is produced in Europe and just a few nations are actually self-reliant in their vaccine stock. There is no easy solution to this potential nightmare scenario since new production facilities can’t open tomorrow. The solution just is not there for more vaccine production.
The World Health Organization [WHO] continues to announce increases in cases of H1N1 flu and the mortality rate continues to rise. The only viable solution for a lack of flu vaccine is to increase stockpiles of antiviral medications such as Tamiflu [Oseletamivir] and Relenza [Zanamivir]. The drugs can meet the demand for treatment and prevention by acting as prophylaxis for citizens who are exposed to illness and also treat influenza patients so illness is less severe. Production of antiviral medication like generic tamiflu has been ramped up substantially since the H1N1 virus reared its ugly head earlier this year after the initial outbreak was tracked to Mexico.
The use of antiviral medications would be a stop gap measure until enough H1N1 vaccine was available for everyone who needed it. To make this scenario even more real is the lack of the expected vaccine yield that was only twenty five to fifty percent of what was expected initially. There is talk that supplies would not be available to countries in need until perhaps the end of the year. The WHO is doing everything it can to see that stockpiles of Tamiflu are getting out to poorer countries and that production is at its peak. They are in contact with the developer and manufacturer oseltamivir – Roche Pharmaceuticals of Switzerland staying abreast of the situation.
Legal experts have spoken out on this situation of broken contracts and non-shipment of vaccine. International law does not have any resolution for contractual situations such as this. It is an unfortunate occurrence that is happening in the core of an epidemiological calamity. The contracts themselves could include a termination clause allowing the contract to be broken if there is an unpredictable situation like a health crisis.
Any nation that is producing influenza vaccine may arbitrarily choose to confiscate all vaccine supplies prior to shipping and place a prohibition order on the export of the vaccine, which would ultimately mean the contract would be broken. Private contracts are not political in the legal sense and are therefore not binding on the parties by international law as if they were two countries.
To this point, the H1N1 influenza virus has been relatively mild to moderate and the seasonal flu kills approximately half a million people every year and the medical experts expect this H1N1 flu to be about as virulent as the regular influenza. If this flu pandemic remains mild than there would be no reason to worry. There were three major pandemics in the last century and the last two in 1957 – 58 and 1968 – 69 found many countries scrambling for available vaccine, this time that is not the case with far more countries brokering deals for guaranteed delivery of vaccine. In the event of a global crisis with this pandemic flu there is no guarantee for any country regardless of how much money and or power they may brandish.